The priority commercial, industrial and public sector emitters

Estimates for the Scope 1 greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions indicate a small number of high-emitting sectors in the West of England. Meanwhile, many of the region's largest employers produce relatively low emissions. This dynamic highlights the need for targeted decarbonisation initiatives and suggests that growing the region's employment base need not come at the expense of emissions targets.

The relationship between emissions and employment

We outline GHG emitting sectors, comprised of the commercial and industrial, electricity, transport and public sectors (see Table 1). The estimates are given for the West of England alongside corresponding percentages for regional employment and contrasted with national emission figures.

Table 1: Top 15 direct GHG contributing sectors

Source: Table created from data from ONS (2023), DESNZ (2025), UK Government (2025) and Bristol Airport (2022) and other relevant emissions factors data.

Air transport is the highest emitting sector in the region, contributing 22% of the total. Other sectors that stand out include electricity production from gas (12%), manufacture of articles of concrete, cement and plaster (11%), and waste collection (11%). Other significant emitters include agriculture, freight and logistics, and human health services, each producing less than 10% of total emissions.

The fifteen highest emitting sectors make up over 80% of the West of England’s commercial and industrial emissions, with 63% deriving from the top five alone. These percentages contrast with corresponding figures for the UK, where the top fifteen sectors make up only 51% of commercial and industrial emissions.

High employment, low emissions

Sectors that employ significant numbers of people are not necessarily those that have high emissions (see Table 2). Nine of the top fifteen sectors for employment in the West of England do not have correspondingly high emissions – they employ 31% of the population but generate only 2.5% of direct emissions. These include education, public administration and architectural and engineering services. By contrast, our data analysis shows the top five emitting sectors in the region employ only 1.8% of the region's workforce.

Table 2: Sectors with relatively low GHGs (outside of top 15) and high employment (in top 15) in the West of England 

Source: Table created with data from ONS (2023), DESNZ (2025) and UK Government (2025).

Taken together, the negative correlation between employment and emissions has interesting implications for public policy. It indicates that targeted interventions to reduce emissions in key sectors would have limited direct impact on the majority of employment in the region and, conversely, that expanding employment in the region’s largest sectors does not risk exponential increases in emissions.

The small number of high-emitting sectors in the West of England presents an opportunity to prioritise a few select yet highly effective decarbonisation initiatives. Within each sub-sector, decarbonisation needs to be tailored to the source of emissions and the capacity for mitigation and technological innovation therein. Aviation services are discussed in a separate policy insight article, while sectoral decarbonisation discussions for the remaining large emitters are presented below.

Mitigating high emissions: Electricity production  

Electricity generation from gas represents an estimated 12% of direct commercial, industrial and public sector emissions in the West of England, according to our estimates. National projections for electricity decarbonisation predict an 88% reduction in emissions by 2040 relative to 2023, and full decarbonisation by 2050. New generation capacity will come mainly from wind and solar generation, alongside new conventional nuclear power stations, and may be supplemented by Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) given technological maturation.

At the national level, the electricity system must simultaneously decarbonise supply and accommodate substantial demand growth. The Climate Change Committee's (CCC) 2024 electricity forecast projected a doubling of demand from 2023 to 2050, driven by the electrification of transport, buildings and manufacturing (CCC, 2024). In light of the rapid development and implementation of energy-intensive artificial intelligence (AI), those forecasts now look conservative.

The projected electrification necessitates a substantial overhaul of transmission, storage and distribution networks in addition to generation increases. Current deployment faces bottlenecks related to planning processes, grid connection capacity and supply chain constraints. Policy interventions must address planning and consenting reform, provide adequate regulatory funding for network expansion and support supply chain development.

A significant development in the last decade has been the decreasing price of battery electricity storage. Batteries reduce electricity generation requirements by smoothing out demand peaks and filling in periods of intermittent generation from renewable sources. Costs have decreased over 90% since 2010 (IEA, 2023), making storage installation commercially competitive even for individual buildings and consumers. Managing battery integration alongside generation increases and grid upgrades is an ongoing technical challenge that will shape power decarbonisation and electricity prices in the decades to come.

Mitigating high emissions: Manufacture of articles of concrete, cement and plaster

Manufacturing related to concrete, cement and plaster accounts for 11% of direct emissions in the West of England, with particularly intensive activities in the production of plaster products, ready-mixed concrete, mortars and concrete products. This subsector presents distinct decarbonisation challenges compared with other manufacturing activities, as emissions predominantly result from the process of producing cement rather than combustion for energy. These process emissions cannot be eliminated through fuel switching alone.

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) emerges as the primary national abatement option and is projected to generate 60% of desired reductions in emissions (CCS will also be used substantially at the regional level in the West of England). A further 26% of reductions will derive from resource efficiency measures, reflecting the subsector’s material intensity and the substantial emissions embedded in production processes (CCC , 2024).

These include clinker substitution in cement production (reducing the amount of clinker in cement and replacing it with lower-carbon supplementary materials), which can reduce emission intensity; refurbishment of existing buildings rather than new construction, which reduces demand for cement and concrete; waste reduction in construction processes; reduction of over-design in structural engineering; and reuse of building components. The replacement of operational electricity with zero-carbon generation will account for the remaining reductions.

Mitigating high emissions: Waste collection and treatment 

Our estimates indicate that the waste sector accounts for an estimated 11% of direct emissions in the region, stemming from waste collection and incineration. By 2050, national waste sector emissions are projected to decline by 67% through increased recycling, waste prevention and deployment of CCS (CCC, 2024). There is also scope for technological improvements to water treatment, including advanced anaerobic digestion for both municipal and industrial facilities. Such improvements would also contribute to water quality objectives by reducing sewage spills into rivers.

There are reasons to be concerned about realising emissions reductions in the waste sector. Recycling rates must increase to 68% by 2035 to meet targets, while actual rates have remained largely flat since 2010 (ibid). Ensuring continued performance will rely on strong messaging, the right incentives and adequate facilities to maintain progress.

Mitigating high emissions: Agriculture and land use 

Agriculture and land use constitute a prominent source of direct emissions in the region. The sector's emissions derive primarily from methane released by livestock, nitrous oxide from fertiliser application and manure management, and carbon dioxide from land use changes. Achieving net zero in this sector requires a combination of low-carbon farming techniques, carbon sequestration through woodland expansion and peatland restoration, and adjustments to livestock numbers (CCC, 2024).

Low-carbon farming techniques are projected to account for 35% of national emissions reductions by 2040 (CCC, 2024). These interventions include feed additives to inhibit methane production in cattle, breeding and livestock health measures to reduce emissions intensity per unit of output, and improved management of animal waste to reduce both methane and nitrous oxide emissions. 

Electrification of agricultural operations, such as heating and cooling and mobile machinery, will contribute approximately 20% of emissions reductions by 2040 (ibid). Reductions in livestock numbers are projected to contribute 32% of emissions reductions in the sector (CCC, 2024). This reflects anticipated declines in meat and dairy consumption and creates an opportunity for carbon sequestration as livestock land is released (ibid). Though without border adjustment mechanisms, there is a risk that reduced domestic production is simply displaced through the import of foreign livestock products.

Unlike many other sectors where decarbonisation can be achieved through cost-saving efficiency improvements, agricultural decarbonisation registers a net cost to the economy. These costs reflect expenditure on machinery electrification, implementation of low-carbon farming measures and woodland creation. This net cost profile must be acknowledged in policy design and may require targeted support mechanisms to enable the transition, while adaptive measures like shifting business models may limit negative impacts on individual farms.

Mitigating high emissions: Freight and logistics

Freight and logistics represent another prominent scope 1 emissions source in the region [1]. The sector encompasses road freight, rail freight and shipping activities, each with distinct decarbonisation pathways.

Shipping accounts for the majority of world freight, and as such is considered here. The transition timeline for this sector is projected to occur in two distinct phases. Until 2040, emissions reductions will be driven primarily by energy efficiency improvements, while development of new low-carbon technologies continues. This phased approach reflects the lead time required to develop production capacity for alternative fuels and to establish the necessary refuelling infrastructure. 

Provided the maturing of these new technologies, the sector will globally transition to reliance on low-carbon fuels and electrification from 2040 (CCC, 2024). Although implementation challenges – such as toxicity and carbon intensive production – exist, low-carbon ‘green’ ammonia and synthetic methanol emerge as the most reliable alternatives to conventional fuels, but full adoption will require technological maturation and production increases (ibid).

The shipping sector requires coordinated policy intervention to support alternative fuel production capacity development, establish refuelling infrastructure and manage the transition across diverse vehicle and vessel types. The extended timeline for this transition underscores the importance of early action to enable the necessary infrastructure and supply chain development [2].

Mitigating high emissions: Human health services 

The human health sector accounts for 2.1% of the region’s commercial and industrial and public sector GHGs. As a structures-intensive sector, its emissions centre around heating buildings, and its emissions profile largely mirrors that of other commercial and public building operators. 

Achieving heat decarbonisation relies on increasing the thermal efficiency of buildings through insulation or improved heat management, and switching to low-carbon sources of heat, usually either individual heat pumps or connection to district heat systems. The discrepancy between the relative cost of gas and electricity, known as the spark gap, remains a key bottleneck to further electrification. Heat decarbonisation is discussed at greater length in our policy insight on the development of the Bristol Heat Network.

Sustained deployment of heat pumps in the public sector requires long-term policy commitments, adequate funding and the development of supply chains capable of supporting rapid installation rates. The public sector, including the health service sector, has historically led decarbonisation efforts in non-residential buildings, helping to catalyse supply chain development and workforce training that subsequently benefits commercial and residential building decarbonisation.

Conclusion

Breaking down the emissions profile of the West of England by sector highlights a relatively small number of sectors with outsize contributions to total emissions; simultaneously, most of the region's biggest employers have comparatively limited emissions. This dynamic suggests the need for targeted decarbonisation efforts that address the specific challenges inherent to different sectors. With targeted decarbonisation strategies, the impact of reducing emissions in the region on employment can be limited.

Footnotes

[1] Figures in the report derive from a territorial emissions dataset and as such do not include shipping

[2] West of England is trialling innovations that ensure its shipping capabilities and port can support the decarbonisation of high-emitting sectors. The main project is the Severnside Carbon Capture and Shipping Hub (7CO2) which aims to establish carbon transport capacity from Bristol Port in Avonmouth (Severnside Carbon Capture and Shipping Hub 2026).

References

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Bristol Airport (2022). 'Annual Monitoring Report 2022', Available online at: https://www.bristolairport.co.uk/media/gx2j4wab/annual-monitoring-report-2022-180923.pdf Accessed 18.02.26.

Climate Change Committee (CCC). (2024). The Seventh Carbon Budget: Technical Report. London: Climate Change Committee. https://www.theccc.org.uk/publication/the-seventh-carbon-budget/ Accessed 02.12.2025.

DESNZ (2025).  Final UK greenhouse gas emissions statistics: 1990 to 2023. Available at: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/final-uk-greenhouse-gas-emissions-statistics-1990-to-2023 Accessed 10.10.25.  

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Perry, Finlay (2026). ‘Bringing decarbonisation home: Bristol's heat network.’ Available online at: https://www.thebrunelcentre.co.uk/research/bringing-decarbonisation-home-bristols-heat-network Accessed 19.03.26

Severnside Carbon Capture and Shipping Hub (no date) ‘What is 7CO2?’ Available online at https://www.7co2.co.uk/what-is-7co2 Accessed 17.03.26

UK Government (2025). United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland’s 2035 Nationally Determined Contribution 2025. Available at: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/679b5ee8413ef177de146c1e/uk-2035-nationally-determined-contribution.pdf Accessed 02.12.25.