Aviation: risks and regional opportunity

There is an inherent dilemma facing the aviation sector today. While aviation can provide a boost to local productivity and realise societal benefits through improved connectivity, it also creates substantial greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs)[1] and poses a risk to compliance with established emissions reduction targets.

Data for the West of England show that aviation already represents a significant share of overall emissions. With demand for air travel forecast to increase, it is likely that the sector’s emissions will continue to rise into the 2040s.

In the near term, opportunities for meaningful decarbonisation remain limited. Short-term measures to reduce emissions from air travel are likely to focus on climate advocacy and support for initiatives aimed at managing passenger demand. Over the long term, the West of England’s aerospace engineering expertise offers opportunities for research and development (R&D) towards the decarbonisation of air travel.

Flight emissions from air travel

Air travel presents a significant emissions challenge. The GHG emissions of flights departing from the West of England in 2022 were estimated at 1,310 kilotonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (KtCO₂e)[2]. This amounts to 21% of the region’s direct emissions – approximately equivalent to the total emissions generated by households. 

Balancing the positive and negative effects of aviation with continued passenger number expansion is a challenge regionally, nationally and internationally. Demand for air travel has rebounded significantly since the COVID-19 pandemic – indeed, passenger numbers in the West of England were 25% higher in 2024 than in 2022. Bristol airport’s current 2040 masterplan projects that 15 million passengers will travel through the airport by the year 2036 (Bristol Airport, 2025a), up from 10.75 million in 2025 (Bristol Airport, 2025b).

Across the UK, emissions from air travel are projected to decline by only 17% by 2040 relative to 2023 levels. Aviation is also forecast to be the sector with the largest residual emissions (Climate Change Committee, 2024). Even with the use of sustainable aviation fuels and more efficient aircraft, some emissions are likely to remain due to technological constraints. This relatively modest projected reduction reflects both the technical challenges of decarbonising aviation and continued demand growth (ibid).  

Decarbonising air travel

Technical decarbonisation pathways in aviation encompass several complementary approaches. The rollout of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) represents a near-term option, though supply constraints and cost considerations remain significant barriers. Alternatives to kerosene, including hybrid-electric, battery-electric and hydrogen propulsion systems, offer longer-term potential.

But these technologies remain at early stages of development and there is considerable uncertainty around their viability and scalability. To date, progress on improving performance has been slow, with almost all industry-set emissions and efficiency targets missed since 2000 (Green Gumption and Possible, 2022).

Policies to manage the number of passengers constitute another critical lever, operating primarily through price mechanisms. The Climate Change Committee recommend that the cost of decarbonising aviation and addressing air and noise pollution be reflected in the cost to fly, either through direct taxation or indirectly through costs passed on by airlines. Policies such as frequent flyer levies, which are targeted towards high emitters (70% of flights are taken by 15% of the population (DfT, 2014)) and those with capacity to pay, are among the most popular climate mitigation policies (Hodgson, 2024; Poortinga et al., 2023).

Currently, aviation policies are administered nationally by the UK government’s Department for Transport. This limits the capacity for regionally tailored action.

While decarbonisation options for air transport remain constrained in the near term, the concentration of aerospace expertise in the West of England represents a strategic asset that should be leveraged to accelerate the development and deployment of low-carbon aviation technologies.

Support for aerospace decarbonisation R&D in the region has the potential to consolidate the West of England’s participation in energy-efficient aircraft design and the development of sustainable propulsion technologies, generating both local economic benefits and global climate impact.

Conclusion

The economic contributions of aviation make policy interventions complicated. The specific impacts will vary between airports and regions, reflecting the composition between business and leisure travel, and whether flights are predominantly inbound or outbound (Chapman and Pot 2025).

Air travel generates operating income, while direct benefits include revenue from inbound tourism, international migration and freight shipments. Indirect benefits arise from connectivity, enhanced productivity and greater inward investment, while outbound leisure flights can take expenditure out of the domestic economy.  

This policy insight highlights the dilemma inherent in aviation activities today. On the one hand, aviation increases local productivity and benefits society through connectivity. On the other, aviation contributes significantly to greenhouse gas emissions and risks non-adherence to emission reduction targets. The current trade-offs must therefore be carefully considered by policy makers.

Footnotes

[1] alongside other externalities such as noise and health-related impacts.

[2] Different fossil fuels have different greenhouse effects and remain in the atmosphere for different lengths, so for comparison, their impact is converted into a comparable amount of CO₂. Methane, for instance has a CO₂e of ~80, meaning that every tonne of methane has the same warming effect as 80 tonnes of CO₂.

References

Bristol Airport (2025a) Bristol Airport master plan: Vision for 2040. Available online at https://www.bristolairport.co.uk/media/svvnfpmc/bristol-airport-master-plan-2040-web-version-v2.pdf Accessed: 13.2.2026

Bristol Airport (2025b) Bristol Airport Q4 2025 ATM & Pax report Available online at https://www.bristolairport.co.uk/media/lkvgpbg2/2025-q4-12-mppa-pax-and-atm-compliance-report.pdf Accessed online 24.02.2026

Chapman and Pot (2025). The economics of air transport in Europe. Part 1: Air transport and growth. Available at: https://neweconomics.org/2025/11/the-economics-of-air-transport-in-europe Accessed: 04.03.26

Climate Change Committee (CCC). (2024). The Seventh Carbon Budget: Technical Report. London: Climate Change Committee. https://www.theccc.org.uk/publication/the-seventh-carbon-budget/ Accessed 02.12.2025.

Department for Transport (2014) ‘Public experiences of and attitudes towards air travel: 2014’. Available at: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/public-experiences-of-and-attitudes-towards-air-travel-2014 Accessed: 06.03.2026

Green Gumption and Possible. (2022). Missed Targets: A brief history of aviation climate targets of the early 21st century. Available at: https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5d30896202a18c0001b49180/t/6273db16dcb32d309eaf126e/1651759897885/Missed-Targets-Report.pdf Accessed: 25.11.2025.

Hodgson, E. (2024) ‘Europe Talks Flying: Navigating public opinion on aviation and climate’ More In Common. Available online at: https://www.moreincommon.org.uk/media/vfrjyxga/europe-talks-flying-report-9th-april-2024.pdf Accessed: 13.2.2026

Poortinga, W., Whitmarsh, L., Steentjes, K., Gray, E., Thompson, S., Brisley, R. (2023) ‘Factors and framing effects in support for net zero policies in the United Kingdom’, Environmental Psychology, 14.