population
Population projections at local authority level in the Greater West of England, 2022-2047
This data insight describes projected changes in the resident population of local authority areas within the Greater West of England between 2022 and 2047. It uses subnational population projections to show how population change is projected to vary by age group and by area over the medium and longer term.
The Greater West of England is a bespoke geography defined here as Bath and North East Somerset, Bristol, Gloucestershire, North Somerset, South Gloucestershire, Swindon, and Wiltshire.
The analysis presents projected population change by age group for each local authority area over two periods, from 2022-2032 and from 2022-2047. It also compares projected percentage population change across areas.
Population projections are trend-based and show what population levels would be if recent demographic trends were to continue. They are not forecasts and do not account for future policy changes or unexpected events.
27.21%
Projected percentage change in the resident population of South Gloucestershire, 2022-2047
50,443
Projected increase in the population aged 75 and over in Gloucestershire, 2022-2047
-10,137
Projected change in the population aged 0 to 15 in Wiltshire, 2022-2032
15,517
Projected increase in the population aged 16 to 24 in Bristol, 2022-2032
Projected population change by age group in Greater West of England local authority areas, 2022 to 2032
This visualisation shows projected changes in the resident population of Greater West of England local authority areas by age group between 2022 and 2032.
Across all areas, increases are projected for most working-age and older age groups, particularly people aged 35 to 44 and those aged 75 and over. In Gloucestershire, an increase of 14,149 is projected among people aged 35 to 44 and 18,314 among those aged 75 and over. In Bristol, an increase of 18,423 is projected among people aged 25 to 34 over the same period.
Decreases are projected in the population aged 0 to 15 across most local authority areas. The largest projected decreases in this age group are in Wiltshire (-10,137), Gloucestershire (-8,912) and Swindon (-6,099).
Projected change in the population aged 55 to 64 varies by area. Decreases are projected in most authorities, including Bristol (-3,149) and Gloucestershire (-4,471), while smaller decreases are projected in South Gloucestershire and Swindon.
Figures reflect projected changes in resident population counts and are based on subnational population projections.
Projected population change by age group in Greater West of England local authority areas, 2022 to 2047
This visualisation shows projected changes in the resident population of Greater West of England local authority areas by age group between 2022 and 2047.
Across all local authority areas, the largest increases are projected among older age groups, particularly people aged 75 and over. In Gloucestershire, an increase of 50,443 is projected in this age group, while Wiltshire is projected to increase by 45,800 and South Gloucestershire by 15,666.
Increases are also projected among people aged 35 to 44 and 45 to 54 across all areas. In Bristol, an increase of 22,854 is projected among people aged 35 to 44 and 15,509 among those aged 45 to 54 over this period.
By contrast, decreases are projected for people aged 0 to 15 in most areas. Wiltshire (-10,610), Gloucestershire (-5,406) and Swindon (-7,867) recorded the largest projected decreases in this age group.
Figures reflect projected changes in resident population counts and are based on subnational population projections.
Projected percentage change in population across Greater West of England local authority areas, 2022 to 2032 and 2022 to 2047
This visualisation compares projected population change as a percentage across Greater West of England local authority areas over the periods from 2022 to 2032 and from 2022 to 2047.
Between 2022 and 2032, projected population change ranges from 5.12% in Swindon to 12.97% in South Gloucestershire. In Bristol recorded a projected increase of 10.02%, while Gloucestershire recorded an increase of 7.84% over this period.
Between 2022 and 2047, greater increases are projected across all areas. The largest projected increase is in South Gloucestershire at 27.21%, followed by Bristol at 17.49% and Gloucestershire at 17.46%. Swindon has the smallest projected increase over this period at 10.37%.
Figures reflect projected percentage changes in resident population and are based on subnational population projections.
